NZ Supply Chain Brief

Freight rose again to USD $3,549/FEU. A Hormuz deal moved closer but was not signed. NZD remained soft. Dairy powders softened further. The pattern is becoming clear: relief is signalled — costs are not yet relieved.

Freight surged 23% in a single week to $3,433/FEU. The NZD fell to 0.579. Oil softened but operational cost relief is not following. The pressure is moving, not disappearing.

The RBNZ held rates. Budget 2026 prioritised resilience. Oil softened further. But freight stays elevated, the NZD remains vulnerable, and the recovery is tentative and uneven.

Oil fell on diplomatic optimism. Freight climbed on operational reality. The NZD weakened ahead of the RBNZ and Budget 2026. Signals vs pressure. That gap now matters commercially.