Drewry's World Container Index eased 1% to US$4,468/40ft on 24 September, but its Intra-Asia Container Index rose another 6% to US$1,491/40ft. Drewry also expects 58 blank sailings out of 712 planned East-West sailings between 28 September and 1 November, an 8% cancellation rate. NZ-specific market intelligence from Navia continues to describe Far East-to-NZ space as tight, with rollovers, carrier omissions and weather disruption, and recommends booking China-origin cargo at least four weeks ahead.
The landed-cost pressure has also intensified through currency. The NZ dollar closed the week at US$0.56595 on 25 September, down 1.1% from US$0.57215 a week earlier. The TWI fell to 64.34, down 0.6% over the same period. For a NZ importer buying goods and freight in US dollars, the exchange-rate move is now at least as important as the movement in headline ocean indices.
Energy remains expensive rather than acutely scarce. Brent finished Friday at US$104.32/bbl, up less than 1% over the week despite large intra-week swings. The global 20-port VLSFO bunker benchmark was US$875/t on 25 September, slightly below the previous Friday. Meanwhile, MBIE's national average regular-91 board price jumped from $3.06/L to $3.20/L in the week to 20 September. Crucially, NZ fuel supply itself remains healthy: MBIE reported 28.7 days of diesel physically in-country, another 7.5 days within the EEZ, and said the fuel supply chain was operating smoothly.
Demand remains a two-speed story. The latest manufacturing PMI is 53.1, with new orders at 54.9, while the services PSI is 51.2 and new orders are stronger at 55.2. But services activity/sales remains at 49.4, and August retail card spending fell 0.9% m/m. That still argues for SKU-level buying rather than a broad inventory rebuild.
HSCM Read: The domestic network is less fragile than it was a week ago. The offshore cost stack is not. For NZ operators, the immediate priority is therefore shifting from pure resilience toward landed-cost control, booking discipline and selective inventory commitment.
The temporary winter timetable had four daily sailings. It is the clearest positive operational change since Issue #18.
HSCM Supply Chain Stress Index
Freight, Ports and Network
Asia to New Zealand remains the operational pressure point
The freight market has not deteriorated uniformly. Drewry's global WCI slipped, yet Intra-Asia pricing continued to move higher. In parallel, Navia reports tight Far East-to-NZ space, continued rollovers into Oceania and elevated FAK pricing. Additional A3X and Maersk Qilin capacity is providing some relief, but weather disruption, blank sailings and carrier omissions are still constraining effective capacity.
Navia's September market snapshot places Shanghai-to-NZ raw freight at approximately US$2,634/TEU, excluding surcharges and local charges. It also reports that Auckland transit performance has generally been close to schedule, although one COSCO/ML/ONE/OOCL rotation showed a 25% cancellation rate over its observation period.
HSCM Read: The immediate risk is less that rates everywhere are surging and more that your required sailing, equipment or connection may not be available when assumed. Lead-time reliability matters as much as the freight rate.
Immediate action: Protect critical China-origin SKUs at least four weeks ahead. Separate must-arrive lines from replenishment that can tolerate a rollover, and price premium-service or alternate-loading-port options before the shipment becomes urgent.
Blank sailings remain significant into Golden Week
Drewry expects 58 cancelled sailings from 712 planned East-West departures between 28 September and 1 November, with most cancellations concentrated on Transpacific eastbound services and Asia-Europe/Mediterranean services. This is not a direct 8% cancellation forecast for NZ routes, but carrier adjustments on major trades can affect equipment positioning, Asian hubs and connecting capacity into Oceania.
For NZ operators, the practical lesson is not to translate the 8% global figure mechanically into local lead time. It is to assume less recovery room when a sailing is missed.
Auckland: do not carry an old yard figure forward
The latest formal Port of Auckland operational bulletin located in this research remains dated 16 September. At that point, Fergusson container operations were described as steady, with 63% average on-time vessel arrivals over the previous four weeks and 99% on-time departures for vessels that arrived within window. The multi-cargo yard was then at 80% utilisation and forecast to reach 100% later that week.
That 100% figure was a time-bound forecast, not a current 28 September utilisation reading. No newer public yard-utilisation bulletin was located, so this issue does not describe Auckland's multi-cargo yard as currently full.
There is nevertheless a current cost signal from the port. Port of Auckland's published tariff information shows its container Fuel Adjustment Factor increased effective 4 September, including the full import/export container FAF rising from $12.50 to $15.00 per container.
HSCM Read: Auckland is not giving us evidence for a current container-terminal congestion story. The better message is to watch individual port cost and multi-cargo pressure points rather than label the entire port congested.
Cook Strait: the anticipated improvement has arrived
Issue #18 treated Kaitaki's return as an expected late-September improvement. The updated official position is stronger. Kaitaki returned from dry dock on 21 September and resumed sailing on 26 September. Interislander's current timetable now lists Kaitaki and Kaiārahi across eight daily Cook Strait departures, including overnight commercial-vehicle-only sailings.
That moves Network Resilience in the right direction.
It does not eliminate Cook Strait risk. Weather, maintenance and actual daily service performance still matter, and eight sailings are not equivalent to twice the freight payload of the temporary timetable. But operators now have more schedule frequency and vessel redundancy than during the one-ship winter period.
Immediate action: Revisit any extra domestic buffers built specifically around the one-ship period. Reduce them only where service performance and booking availability justify it, rather than automatically removing contingency stock on day one.
Europe to NZ restrictions and equipment availability: still a watch item
Issue #18 carried earlier-September market intelligence that some CMA CGM Europe-to-NZ bookings via Asia had been suspended amid peak congestion, alongside 20ft equipment pressure.
No newer public Oceanbridge notice confirming those restrictions remain in force as at 27 September was located. They should therefore be treated as a carry-over watch item requiring forwarder or carrier confirmation, not stated here as an active blanket restriction.
Navia does independently report the first signs of equipment availability issues at major Chinese ports and continued tight space into Oceania, reinforcing the need to confirm equipment at booking rather than assume it will be available.
Demand, Trade and Inventory
Imports are growing in the categories that matter for physical supply chains
August goods imports reached $8.0 billion, up 13% year-on-year, while exports rose 15% to $6.7 billion. The monthly merchandise trade deficit was $1.3 billion.
The import composition is more operationally important than the headline. Imports from China rose 29% year-on-year, with the largest increases coming from electrical machinery (+$178m) and vehicles and parts (+$177m).
That aligns directionally with the forwarder evidence of tight China-to-Oceania space. It does not prove that NZ import growth caused the capacity pressure. Weather, Asian demand, carrier capacity management and wider Oceania flows are all involved.
Forward demand remains better than realised demand
There has been no newer PMI or PSI release since Issue #18, so August remains the latest reading.
Manufacturing PMI was 53.1. Production was 54.2, new orders 54.9, employment 50.0 and finished stocks 56.4. Manufacturing has therefore retained expansion, but at a slower pace than July.
Services PSI was 51.2, with a much stronger new-orders reading of 55.2. Yet activity/sales remained at 49.4, employment at 49.4 and supplier deliveries at 49.0. BusinessNZ itself characterises the recovery as still fragile.
August retail electronic card spending also fell 0.9% m/m, or $63 million, after July's improvement.
HSCM Read: The basic signal from Issue #18 survives another week unchanged. Forward orders look healthier than realised consumer and services activity. Until that gap closes, purchasing plans should be built from actual SKU velocity and confirmed orders, not from the broad recovery narrative.
Finished stocks: monitor, do not over-interpret
PMI finished stocks at 56.4 sits above the 50 expansion threshold, while production is also expansionary at 54.2.
These are diffusion indices, not physical growth rates. A 56.4 finished-stocks reading therefore does not prove that inventory volume is growing faster than production volume.
The useful operational question is narrower: are the SKUs showing higher stock coverage also the SKUs where actual sales are lagging the stronger order pipeline? If yes, procurement should slow before the aggregate economic narrative catches up.
Dairy improves despite the last full GDT pause
There has been no new full GDT Trading Event since Event 412 on 15 September. The next full Trading Event, Event 413, is scheduled for 6 October.
The more important new development is Fonterra's 21 September revision to its 2026/27 Farmgate Milk Price forecast. The midpoint increased from $9.25 to $9.50/kgMS, while the range narrowed and lifted from $8.00 to $10.50, to $8.50 to $10.50/kgMS. Fonterra attributed the revision to improved global dairy commodity prices while retaining a cautious view on geopolitical volatility.
Fonterra then reported FY26 results on 24 September, including a final 2025/26 Farmgate Milk Price of $9.69/kgMS.
HSCM Read: This is a constructive regional cash-flow signal, particularly for dairy-exposed areas. But it does not invalidate the consumer caution in national card-spending data.
Energy, FX and Finance
The cost stack remains elevated, but the problem is price rather than NZ fuel availability
The FX move deserves particular attention. NZD/USD has now fallen from 0.57215 on 18 September to 0.56595 on 25 September, approximately 1.1% in one week, on top of the weakening already seen before Issue #18.
For a USD-denominated purchase, a lower freight index does not necessarily mean a lower NZD landed cost. The operational equation is now:
Supplier price × weaker NZD + ocean freight + bunker and fuel surcharges + local charges = current landed cost.
That calculation needs to be rerun, not inferred from whichever freight index made the weekly headline.
NZ has fuel, but it is expensive
MBIE reported that as at 20 September, NZ held 24.5 days of petrol, 28.7 days of diesel and 33.4 days of jet fuel physically in-country. A further 13.5 days of petrol, 7.5 days of diesel and 2.7 days of jet fuel were on water inside the EEZ. MBIE says the fuel supply chain continues to operate smoothly and stocks remain above required levels.
NZ's statutory minimum stockholding obligations are 28 days of petrol, 21 days of diesel and 24 days of jet fuel, with qualifying holdings able to include specified stocks under the regime.
This is currently a fuel-cost problem, not evidence of a domestic fuel-availability problem.
MBIE also revised its weekly fuel methodology on 23 September to better capture Middle East conflict-related import costs. The revision raised estimated importer costs over the affected period by an average 10c/L for diesel and 3c/L for petrol. Historic MBIE margin figures therefore need to be interpreted using the revised series rather than compared blindly with figures published under the old methodology.
Rates: plan for the decision, do not predict it
The OCR remains 2.75% and the next review is on 28 October.
RBNZ Governor Anna Breman said on 22 September that persistent high oil prices could produce somewhat higher near-term inflation than assumed in the September Monetary Policy Statement, while the recovery is expected to strengthen and broaden. Reuters reported market pricing at roughly a 75% probability of a rise to 3.0% at the October decision.
The RBNZ's own September assessment remains deliberately conditional. Financial conditions have tightened, the recovery is uneven, and future policy depends on incoming data and inflation risks.
HSCM Read: Do not make an inventory decision because the OCR will rise. Make sure the inventory case still works if financing costs rise another 25bp and if the NZD stays near current levels.
Compliance and Trade Risk
The BMSB transition window is about to close
For targeted vehicles, machinery and parts from BMSB-risk countries, the 2026/27 risk season applies to goods exported on or after 1 September that arrive in NZ on or before 30 April.
There is one transition exception. Targeted goods loaded into a fully enclosed container and sealed before 1 September can avoid BMSB management if that container is exported before 1 October. Importers need evidence including the seal number and a date-stamped photograph.
For this issue published on 28 September, that cutoff is immediate.
MPI also explicitly warns that goods originating in a non-risk country but transshipping through a BMSB-risk country during the season may become subject to transshipment requirements.
The downside of getting it wrong is operational, not merely administrative. MPI states that untreated targeted BMSB risk goods arriving without required treatment are likely to be refused unloading and shipped out of NZ territory at the importer's expense.
Immediate action: For any shipment relying on the pre-1-September sealing exception, verify the sailing and export date and documentary evidence now. Do not wait until arrival documentation is being assembled.
US lamb remains a dated risk, not a weekly headline
The USITC's global safeguard investigation remains on schedule. Its serious-injury hearing is 16 October, its injury determination is due 13 November, and a remedy hearing would follow on 1 December if the injury determination is affirmative or equally divided. The final report is due to the US President by 11 January 2027.
No new determination has occurred, so this belongs in the risk calendar rather than as a standalone headline.
What Smart Operators Are Doing Now
- Retesting landed cost at NZD/USD 0.566, with a downside scenario at 0.56, rather than relying on the exchange rate used for the last purchase order.
- Booking critical China-origin cargo at least four weeks ahead and identifying which SKUs can tolerate a rollover before Golden Week capacity adjustments bite.
- Confirming equipment and space at origin, not assuming them. The current issue is effective capacity and schedule reliability, even where headline vessel capacity looks adequate.
- Re-optimising Cook Strait buffers selectively now that Kaitaki and the eight-sailing timetable are returning, while retaining contingency for weather and early-service disruption.
- Auditing fuel pass-through mechanisms in domestic freight contracts, separating base freight, FAF, BAF and other surcharges so that increases can be challenged against the correct benchmark.
- Buying inventory at SKU level, particularly where current sales have not yet caught up with stronger new-order indicators.
- Closing the BMSB documentation gap before 1 October for any cargo relying on the transitional sealed-container exception, and checking the full transshipment route.
- Keeping the 28 October OCR decision in cash-flow scenarios without treating a hike as certain.
Base Case
Domestic resilience is improving. Offshore cost and schedule pressure remains elevated.
Freight: Should be treated as a capacity and reliability problem rather than a simple global-rate problem. WCI is down slightly, yet Intra-Asia is up 6%, China-to-NZ space is still described as tight and carriers are removing capacity around Golden Week.
Demand: Should remain selectively constructive rather than broadly bullish. Manufacturing and services new orders are positive, but services activity and consumer spending still argue against a general inventory rebuild.
Energy: Remains high-cost but adequately supplied domestically. This distinction should prevent businesses from reacting to high pump prices by unnecessarily adding fuel-security inventory or assuming a physical shortage that MBIE's stock data does not show.
Finance and FX: Remain the clearest deteriorating landed-cost component. A NZD below 0.57 changes the NZD cost of imported goods immediately, regardless of what the WCI does.
Network resilience: Is the week's genuine improvement. The return of Kaitaki means the extra domestic buffers justified by the temporary one-ship Cook Strait schedule can now be reviewed rather than treated as permanent.
Dates to Watch
- 26 September: Kaitaki resumed Cook Strait sailings
- 1 October: BMSB transitional sealed-container export exception closes
- 6 October: GDT Event 413
- 16 October: USITC lamb serious-injury hearing
- 22 October: NZ September-quarter CPI release
- 28 October: RBNZ OCR decision
- 13 November: USITC lamb injury determination
The Week in Context
Issue #18 asked whether businesses could convert returning growth into margin. Issue #19 sharpens the answer.
One important piece of the physical network has improved. Cook Strait redundancy is returning.
But the landed-cost equation has become harder. The NZ dollar is weaker, Asia-linked freight remains tight, blank sailings continue, fuel remains expensive and the BMSB transition deadline is now immediate.
At the same time, demand still does not justify buying everything ahead of the curve. New orders are healthy, but services activity and consumer spending have yet to provide equally strong confirmation.
For NZ importers, distributors and manufacturers, that makes the operational priority clear. Use the improvement in domestic resilience to remove unnecessary buffer, but do not give the working-capital benefit back by overbuying offshore at a weaker exchange rate.
The businesses that protect margin through this phase will not necessarily be those that carry the most stock or secure the cheapest headline freight rate. They will be the ones that know which SKUs need stock, which sailings need protection, which surcharges are justified and what today's exchange rate has done to the real landed cost of every replenishment decision.
Base case: resilience is improving at home. Cost discipline matters more than ever offshore.
Sébastien Mallevialle CSCP | HSCM Solutions
sebastien.mallevialle@hscmsolutions.com |
hscmsolutions.com
Published every Monday | Issue #19 | 28 September 2026 | Next: Monday, 5 October 2026
This publication is provided for general informational purposes only and reflects the author's independent analysis of publicly available information at the time of writing. It does not constitute financial, legal, tax, investment, or professional advice. Readers should seek independent professional advice before making decisions based on this content. While reasonable care has been taken in preparing this publication, HSCM Solutions makes no representations or warranties regarding its accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any particular purpose and accepts no liability for any loss arising from reliance on this publication.
Sources: Stats NZ merchandise trade and price releases · Reserve Bank of New Zealand exchange-rate and OCR data · MBIE fuel prices and fuel-stock monitoring · Drewry WCI and Intra-Asia Container Index · Navia NZ freight market intelligence · Port of Auckland operational update · Interislander timetable · MPI BMSB requirements · BusinessNZ PMI and PSI · Fonterra · Global Dairy Trade · USITC · Reuters energy and monetary-policy reporting