Each of those looks like relief. Whether it reaches an importer’s final invoice depends on the currency, contract and surcharges involved.
The NZ dollar fell after the Reserve Bank’s surprise hold, crude futures finished the week higher on a like-for-like contract comparison, and diesel stocks physically held in New Zealand fell to the lowest of the four October observations reviewed.
HSCM Solutions Read: A lower global freight index is only one input to landed cost. The NZD weakened and some local charges are increasing, so compare the full NZD cost.
This Week in 30 Seconds
| Signal | What changed | Commercial implication |
|---|---|---|
| OCR | Held at 2.75% on a 4 to 3 vote on 28 October. Three members voted for 3.00% | Financing risk deferred, not removed. Next decision 9 December. |
| NZD/USD | 0.56285 on 30 October, down 1.06% on the week | A US$100,000 invoice costs NZ$1,889 more than on 23 October. |
| Diesel cover | 48.3 days, up 2.0. In-country diesel 26.2 days, down 3.6 | The total improved because cargo moved closer. Local stock fell. |
| Crude | Brent January settled at US$113.43 on 30 October. October gain 13.6% | The latest MBIE retail diesel reading remains unverified, so the extent of any pass-through cannot yet be established. |
| Global freight | Drewry WCI US$4,429, down 3% | Global composite, not an NZ rate. Check NZ lane quotes. |
| Port and courier charges | Auckland FAF to NZ$20.00 on 6 November. NZ Couriers surcharge rises to 1.1% | Local charges are still stepping up. |
| Business costs | ANZ: net 82% expect higher costs. Pricing intentions net 52% | Margins are under pressure, and more firms plan to raise prices. |
HSCM Solutions Supply Chain Stress Index
Supply conditions are manageable and the OCR pause helps. Currency, crude and in-country diesel are moving the wrong way, and the rate risk has been postponed to December rather than removed.
The index remains Elevated because cost drivers outweigh the improvements in freight and financing.
Commercial Signal
A lower freight index is not a lower landed cost.
Take a US$5,000 freight invoice. A 3% fall in the USD charge saves US$150, worth NZ$264 at the 23 October rate of 0.56890.
At the 30 October rate of 0.56285 the invoice falls to US$4,850 and costs NZ$8,617, against NZ$8,789 a week earlier. The saving is NZ$172. The weaker dollar absorbed NZ$92 of it.
This is an illustration, not a claim that freight to New Zealand fell 3%. It shows why savings should be measured in the currency the business pays.
This Week’s Number
Source: RBNZ B1 series. Weekly fixes to 16 October, then daily fixes. Fixes from 27 to 30 October were taken from published snippets and should be rechecked.
What changed: The NZD fell 1.5% on 28 October, from 0.56925 to 0.56085, and has recovered only part of it.
Why it matters: Invoices priced in US dollars cost more today than they did a week ago, whatever happened to the freight rate.
Leading Signals vs Current Reality
| Leading signal | Current reality |
|---|---|
| Total diesel cover rose to 48.3 days | In-country diesel fell to 26.2 days, with 9.2 days now within the EEZ. |
| Brent January is below the expired December contract | The contracts cover different months. Crude is higher on the month. |
| The OCR was held | Three of seven members voted to hike. Banks still expect December. |
| Drewry WCI fell 3% | The fall was on Transpacific lanes. Asia-Europe rose slightly. |
| Russia extended its producer diesel export ban | Exceptions for global supply were mentioned but not yet confirmed. |
HSCM Solutions Read: Total cover tells you what is coming. In-country cover tells you what you can use this week.
1. Fuel, Energy & FX
Diesel cover rose, but the stock in New Zealand fell
MBIE’s snapshot as at 25 October, published 29 October, reported total diesel cover of 48.3 days, up from 46.3. Eleven fuel ships are inbound, up from nine.
| Diesel cover (days) | 18 October | 25 October |
|---|---|---|
| In-country | 29.8 | 26.2 |
| On ships within EEZ | 1.3 | 9.2 |
| On ships outside EEZ | 15.1 | 12.9 |
| Total | 46.3 | 48.3 |
Source: MBIE fuel stock updates. Pre-conflict demand basis. Totals exclude the strategic diesel reserve. Four weekly snapshots only; earlier snapshots are disputed and not shown.
What changed: Cargo moved inside the EEZ and in-country stock fell 3.6 days.
Why it matters: The onshore buffer is smaller even though headline cover rose. Monitor vessel timing and supplier delivery capacity rather than assuming a shortage.
Petrol cover is 53.0 days and jet fuel 52.3 days. Totals exclude the government’s 87.5 million litre strategic diesel reserve at Marsden Point. MBIE stock updates now publish on Thursdays, with the next on 5 November.
Channel Infrastructure has warned that diesel cover could slide towards the 21-day minimum once the temporary reserve arrangement lapses, according to B2B News. That is an industry position, not an MBIE forecast.
Pump prices have paused while crude has not
MBIE published its price update for the week ending 23 October on 28 October. HSCM Solutions could not retrieve the figures for this issue, so the chart ends at the last verified reading, 321.70 c/L for the week ending 16 October.
Source: MBIE weekly fuel price monitoring. Includes GST, excludes Road User Charges. Dotted segment: no 28 August value held. The week ending 23 October was published by MBIE on 28 October but not obtained.
What changed: In the last verified MBIE readings, weekly increases slowed from 21.0c to 0.79c.
Why it matters: Diesel is still 135.01c/L above the pre-conflict level of 186.69, and the 23 October MBIE reading has not yet been verified for this issue.
Gaspy shows diesel at NZ$3.206/L on 31 October, against NZ$3.23 on 16 October. Gaspy is crowd-sourced data and not MBIE’s series. The difference between retail and crude movements may reflect timing, product markets and importer margins. Without a matched MBIE importer-cost series, the cause cannot be established.
Crude closed October sharply higher
Brent January settled at US$113.43 on 30 October, up 1.5% on the week. The December contract that Issue #23 quoted expired at US$117.64. Brent gained 13.6% in October and WTI 15.2%, according to Reuters via CNBC. WTI settled at US$104.12.
Source: Reuters, Bloomberg and Investing.com via CNBC (secondary). Selected observations from each issue; no values are estimated. The contract month changes across the series. From 9 October the December contract is shown, to its expiry. Green dashed line: January contract, the new front month, which is not comparable with December.
The navy line connects selected rolling-front-month observations; it is not a continuous fixed-contract series. The green dashed January segment is shown separately.
What changed: The benchmark rolled to the January contract, which sits about US$4 below December’s final settlement.
Why it matters: A lower quoted price is not a falling market. Compare like with like.
Goldman Sachs’ Daan Struyven estimated on 23 October that the threat of disruption adds about US$27 a barrel to Brent. He said a sustainable diplomatic solution would be needed for it to come off quickly.
Supply measures: announced, not delivered
The IEA’s 15 October commitment stands at about 330 million barrels released, with more than 20 million barrels of diesel to be accelerated. HSCM Solutions did not identify a new collective action since 23 October. IEA director Fatih Birol said on 20 October that the agency is ready to coordinate one.
Russia’s government announced on 31 October that its producer diesel export ban is extended to 31 January 2027, according to Xinhua. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said exceptions would be made for supply to global markets. The decree text was not reviewed, so the scope of those exceptions is unconfirmed.
OPEC+ core members were reported by Reuters sources to have agreed in principle to hold December targets at the 1 November meeting. HSCM Solutions had not seen the official statement at cut-off.
Hormuz remains severely constrained
The Joint Maritime Information Center kept its threat assessment at severe in its 25 October advisory. It counted 101 US-facilitated transits from 22 to 24 October and about 492 vessels waiting outside the strait. The International Maritime Organization counted 27 attacks to 22 October, the most in any month of the war, according to USNI News.
War-risk insurance levels could not be confirmed from a named source this week. Claims by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard of multiple tanker strikes remain unverified and are not relied on here.
The kiwi gave back its gains
RBNZ B1 fixes show NZD/USD at 0.56925 on 27 October, 0.56085 on 28 October after the decision, and 0.56285 on 30 October. The TWI ended the week at 63.86, down 0.65.
At 0.56285, a US$100,000 invoice costs about NZ$177,667, before bank charges or hedging.
HSCM Solutions Read: Retest landed costs at 0.56. In the illustrated USD freight example, the weaker NZD absorbed roughly one-third of the hypothetical 3% saving.
2. Freight, Ports & Network
Global container rates eased
Drewry’s World Container Index fell 3% to US$4,429 per 40-foot container on 29 October. Shanghai to Los Angeles fell 6% to US$7,514 and Shanghai to New York 5% to US$9,631. Shanghai to Rotterdam rose 1% to US$3,686 and Shanghai to Genoa was stable at US$4,151. Drewry expects Transpacific rates to fall further and Asia-Europe to hold.
Source: Drewry. Global East-West composite, not an NZ rate. Dotted segments: no values held for those weeks.
What changed: The index reversed two weeks of gains.
Why it matters: The WCI is a global East-West benchmark. It does not measure Asia to New Zealand lanes. Use it for direction only and rely on shipment-specific quotes.
Local charges keep stepping up
Port of Auckland’s fuel adjustment factor for a full import or export container rises from NZ$17.50 to NZ$20.00 on 6 November, a further 14.3%. It was NZ$12.50 before 4 September, so the fee is up 60% in about two months. The 6 November step was set before last week’s crude rally.
NZ Couriers’ temporary service continuity surcharge rises from 0.6% in October to 1.1% in November. Its domestic variable fuel factor is 14.30% from 2 November, with 14.40% scheduled from 9 November. These are separate charges and may apply together.
Source: Official publisher. Observed readings only; missing periods are not estimated.
What changed: Carrier fuel factors rose strongly into early October before easing. Why it matters: A separate continuity surcharge is rising in November, so track the full invoice, not just VFF.
HSCM Solutions did not obtain NZ-specific surcharge notices from the major container lines, nor updates from other NZ ports, Cook Strait ferries or KiwiRail this week. Check carrier advisories directly.
HSCM Solutions Read: Review the full invoice, not the headline rate. A fall in one line is often offset by a rise in another.
3. Demand, Manufacturing, Trade & Dairy
Business confidence holds, but costs are rising
ANZ’s October Business Outlook put confidence at +53, up one point, and expected own activity at +46, down two. A net 82% of firms expect higher costs. A net 52% intend to raise prices, up four points and the highest since May. Inflation expectations are 3.3%, and the average intended price increase is 1.9%. Investment intentions fell to 18.3 from 22.6.
Manufacturing has the strongest own-activity outlook at +59 and agriculture the weakest at +38. These are survey expectations and intentions, not measured cost or price changes.
Source: ANZ Business Outlook. Net balances, not the share of costs recovered. August not shown because a comparable observation was not obtained; dashed line denotes the gap.
The October PMI is due 13 November and the PSI on 16 November. September’s PMI was 56.5.
Dairy returns improve
The Global Dairy Trade auction on 20 October lifted the price index 2.5%, the largest rise since February. Whole milk powder rose 4.4% to US$3,760 per tonne and skim milk powder 3.4% to US$3,975. Cheddar fell 7.4%. The next auction trades on 3 November UTC, which is 4 November NZ time. On 30 October, Fonterra raised its 2026/27 forecast midpoint to NZ$9.75/kgMS from NZ$9.50/kgMS, with a revised range of NZ$9.00 to NZ$10.50/kgMS.
China manufacturing contracts in October
China’s official manufacturing PMI fell from 50.1 in September to 49.3 in October. The National Bureau of Statistics reported production at 49.8 and new orders at 49.4. For NZ importers, this is a prompt to review supplier quotes, MOQs and production lead times by category, not a guarantee of cheaper supply.
Source: Official publisher. Observed readings only; missing periods are not estimated.
What changed: China’s headline PMI moved below the 50-point threshold. Why it matters: Negotiation opportunities and supplier risks depend on individual categories and factories.
NZ-India FTA: still a document question
NZ Customs states that preferential tariffs depend on the product and the agreement’s rules of origin. Importers must hold a Certificate of Origin, and exporter self-declaration is not yet available. A proof of origin is valid for 12 months.
Savings only reach the invoice if the supplier can issue the certificate. Ask for it before changing orders.
US lamb safeguard
The USITC injury determination is due by 13 November. If it is affirmative or tied, a remedy hearing follows on 1 December. No measure should be assumed.
4. Rates & Compliance
OCR: held at 2.75%
Policy. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 4 to 3 on 28 October to hold the OCR at 2.75%. Three members, including chief economist Paul Conway, voted for 3.00%. The OCR was raised in July and September.
RBNZ signals. The Record of Meeting says further increases are likely but conditional on the outlook. It warns that pass-through from energy, shipping and food costs could come later and be larger. The majority said the two recent increases allowed time to assess their effects.
Market pricing. Markets had priced a hike at roughly 90 to 95% before the decision. After it, pricing for a December hike fell to about 41%, according to LSEG data cited by secondary sources. Two-year swap rates fell 12 to 13 basis points to about 3.98 to 3.99%.
Bank views. ANZ and ASB expect increases in December, February and March, taking the OCR to 3.50%. Westpac expects December and a 4.00% peak in September 2027. BNZ expects December and 3.75%. Kiwibank expects 3.00% then 3.25% in 2027. NZIER expects one more increase in late 2027, according to NZ Adviser.
HSCM Solutions planning. Test financing at 2.75% and at 3.00% from December. This is a planning approach, not a prediction.
HSCM Solutions could not confirm any retail mortgage rate changes since the decision.
Election, 7 November
Changes to fuel taxes, road user charges or port and infrastructure funding would affect landed and distribution costs only after a government forms. HSCM Solutions does not take a position and did not identify sourced party positions on these items in the sources reviewed.
What Smart Operators Are Doing Now
- Retest landed cost at NZD/USD 0.56 on every open purchase order, not at the rate used when the order was placed.
- Track in-country diesel, not just total cover. Confirm your own fuel supplier’s delivery buffer.
- Hold fuel and freight assumptions until the next two MBIE price prints show where crude has settled.
- Request Certificates of Origin from Indian suppliers before shifting volume.
- Review the whole freight invoice against the 6 November port step and the November courier surcharge.
HSCM Solutions Base Case
Currency, freight surcharges and energy remain key landed-cost risks. Rates are paused, not cleared.
| Scenario | What it looks like | Planning response |
|---|---|---|
| Base | January Brent remains near or above US$110; NZD/USD stays around 0.56 to 0.57; local pump-price pass-through remains uncertain. | Keep fuel and currency assumptions at current levels. |
| Relief | Russian and IEA diesel volumes arrive. Hormuz product flows recover. NZD recovers. | Open surcharge reduction talks with carriers. |
| Stress | US and Iran escalation deepens Hormuz disruption. In-country diesel keeps falling. | Secure critical supply and confirm fuel contingency. |
| Strengthens the base case | Weakens it |
|---|---|
| Brent January holds above US$110 | Brent falls below US$100 |
| MBIE diesel prints resume rising | MBIE diesel prints stay flat or fall |
| NZD/USD stays below 0.57 | NZD/USD recovers above 0.58 |
| In-country diesel stays below 27 days | In-country diesel rebuilds above 30 days |
| December hike pricing rises | December hike pricing fades |
Key triggers: In-country diesel cover (5 November), Brent January settle, NZD/USD against 0.56, and the 9 December OCR.
These are planning scenarios, not price or monetary policy forecasts.
Dates to Watch
| Date | Event | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| 2 November | RBNZ B1 exchange rate release, 3pm | First fix since 30 October. |
| 3 November | RBA decision, 4:30pm NZT | Trans-Tasman currency and rate signal. |
| 4 November | Global Dairy Trade auction (3 November UTC) | Export prices. |
| 4 November | Stats NZ labour market, September quarter | Demand and wage pressure. |
| 4 November | MBIE weekly fuel prices | First prints covering the crude rise. |
| 5 November | MBIE fuel stocks (Thursday) | In-country diesel cover. |
| 6 November | Port of Auckland FAF to NZ$20.00 | Landed cost. |
| 7 November | General election | Policy risk. |
| 9 November | NZ Couriers VFF to 14.40% | Carrier-specific distribution costs. |
| 13 November | October PMI. USITC lamb determination due | Manufacturing demand. Export risk. |
| 16 November | October PSI | Services demand. |
| 17 November | RBNZ Financial Stability Report, 9am | Banking and credit risk. |
| 30 November | ANZ Business Outlook | Cost and pricing expectations. |
| 9 December | OCR decision and Monetary Policy Statement | Financing. |
The Week in Context
Last week’s brief was titled “Diesel Has Stopped Rising. Crude Hasn’t.”
Crude did not stop. Brent finished October higher, but the latest MBIE retail-price observation is still to be verified. The Reserve Bank paused rates while the NZ dollar weakened sharply.
Global freight eased, and some surrounding NZ port and courier charges continue to rise. Total diesel cover improved while the stock in New Zealand fell.
For New Zealand businesses, the lesson is the same as it was a week ago, with a sharper edge. Several apparent improvements came with offsetting pressures.
The cost of a shipment is determined by the whole landed-cost calculation, not a single freight index.
Sébastien Mallevialle CSCP | HSCM Solutions
sebastien.mallevialle@hscmsolutions.com |
hscmsolutions.com
Published every Monday | Issue #24 | 2 November 2026 | Figures current to latest available data as at 1 November 2026 | Next: Monday, 9 November 2026
This publication is provided for general informational purposes only and reflects the author's independent analysis of publicly available information at the time of writing. It does not constitute financial, legal, tax, investment, or professional advice. Readers should seek independent professional advice before making decisions based on this content. While reasonable care has been taken in preparing this publication, HSCM Solutions makes no representations or warranties regarding its accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any particular purpose and accepts no liability for any loss arising from reliance on this publication.
Primary sources and methodology
Market observations are dated; futures prices are contract-specific; global freight indices are not NZ lane quotes. Survey balances measure expectations, not realised costs. Historical charts use observed points, with gaps identified and no invented values.
RBNZ OCR · RBNZ exchange rates · MBIE fuel · MBIE stocks · Drewry · ANZ · Fonterra · NZ Couriers · China NBS · NZ Customs · RBNZ FSR release
Sources: MBIE weekly fuel price monitoring and fuel stock updates · RBNZ exchange rates, OCR statement and Record of Meeting · Drewry · Port of Auckland · NZ Couriers · ANZ Business Outlook · Global Dairy Trade · Fonterra · NZ Customs · USITC · IEA · JMIC · Xinhua · Reuters via CNBC · USNI News · B2B News · NZ Adviser · interest.co.nz · China National Bureau of Statistics · RBNZ Financial Stability Report scheduling